A Historic Window for Chinese Medical Products Going Global
The world has demand, China has capacity and policy has consensus β where the three meet is the best moment for China's quality medicines and devices to enter overseas reimbursement systems.
The "Nine-Year Stagnation" of Chinese Pharmaceutical Exports
China has the world's second-largest generic-drug manufacturing capacity and a complete manufacturing system, and its pharmaceutical industry is shifting from scale expansion to quality upgrade. Yetβ
Pharmaceutical product exports have stagnated at 1%β2% of total exports for nine consecutive years, and the vast majority of that is APIs and intermediates β what we sell is not "medicine that can enter another country's reimbursement list." Innovative drugs enjoy policy tailwinds, but the biggest slice of the premium market has mostly been taken by US, European and Japanese companies.
The root of the problem is "big but not strong": manufacturing scale is sufficient, yet the industry lacks health-economic evidence capability, making it hard to enter national reimbursement systems. Turning a manufacturing-scale advantage into a global competitive advantage is the industry's core challenge.
Reference data: 2025 total import/export value hit a record high with nine consecutive years of positive growth, and electromechanical products account for about 26.3% of exports β China can sell quality industrial goods to the whole world; pharmaceuticals should be no different.
Policy Dividend: A Global Consensus Is Taking Shape
π UN SDG Target 3.8
Achieve Universal Health Coverage (UHC) so everyone can access quality essential healthcare and safe, effective, quality and affordable essential medicines and vaccines β a shared commitment of governments everywhere and the underlying logic of the "access language".
π₯ WHO "Three Billion" Targets
WHO's Fourteenth General Programme of Work (2025β2028) sets the "three billion" targets: one billion more people benefiting from Universal Health Coverage, one billion more better protected from health emergencies, and one billion more enjoying better health and well-being; it also advances reducing inequalities in health services and curbing catastrophic health expenditure.
π¨π³ Healthy China 2030
China's pharmaceutical industry is transforming from scale expansion to quality upgrade, innovative-drug R&D is accelerating and industrial internationalization is being promoted β the national strategy is moving in step with the global health agenda.
Opportunity insight: health ministries are typically assessed internationally and receive funding against SDG indicators. Using their indicator language in HTA dossiers and negotiations is equivalent to translating a commercial request into the development goals of an overseas government β precisely the origin of Qiyang's "SDG indicator-language translation" strategy.
Global Demand Gap Γ China's Supply Capacity
π The global access gap
- About 1/3 of the world's population lacks access to essential medicines.
- Low- and middle-income countries bear about 90% of the global disease burden.
- Multi-country access evidence is the core bottleneck.
- Price sensitivity creates opportunity for quality generics.
- After screening 233 countries, 57 priority markets remain.
π China's supply capacity
- One of the world's largest pharmaceutical producers by volume.
- Abundant domestic generic capacity at low cost.
- Quality already meets WHO GMP standards.
- A pool of 406 million diabetes patients β clinical and practical experience from the world's largest disease pool.
- Pharmaceutical exports have long lingered at low levels (supply has not "gone out" enough).
Qiyang's solution: connect China's pharmaceutical supply capacity with global reimbursement systems through HTA-driven evidence generation and AI-driven market screening (233 countries β 57 priority markets). Between supply capacity and the demand gap lies "multi-country access evidence" β exactly the gap Qiyang focuses on filling.
Why the Traditional Going-Global Path Fails
| Traditional approach | Core bottleneck |
|---|---|
| Building an in-house BD team | Extremely costly β requires on-the-ground teams and long-term headcount spanning multiple country markets, which small and mid-size pharma companies can hardly afford. |
| Engaging HEOR / consultancy firms | Often deliver only an HTA report β the pharma company is still left without an on-the-ground team to execute negotiation and promotion; system-level global services cost on the order of US$1.5 billion and take longer than a product's remaining life cycle, affordable only by top-tier pharma. |
| Product licensing / rights transfer | Control is transferred, and there is a wide gap between the upfront payment and what is actually received (about 10:1); the pharma company loses product ownership in the later value appreciation. |
Common flaw: the core reason overseas-expansion consulting failed in the past is the lack of full-chain execution capability. What a pharma company needs is not a report, but a partner that can truly "get" its product into an overseas reimbursement system and keep operating it.
Five Priority Markets: From a 233-Country Screen
Country-selection criteria in priority order: a single payer exists (centralized decisions β no need to win over state by state, hospital by hospital) Β· short HTA review timelines (earlier case studies) Β· largest Chinese price advantage Β· can radiate across a regional bloc (access in one country leverages several).
| # | Country | Patient pool | OOP payment | Competitors | Score | Strategic value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Africa | 14.98M | $145 | 0 | 7.55 | African regional hub |
| 2 | Indonesia | 75.48M | $80 | 2 | 7.40 | ASEAN's largest market |
| 3 | Peru | 9.36M | $145 | 1 | 7.30 | Latin America entry point |
| 4 | Kenya | 12.56M | $55 | 0 | 7.20 | East Africa gateway |
| 5 | Philippines | 30.42M | $90 | 2 | 7.15 | ASEAN's second pillar |
Filtering funnel: 233 countries β 156 countries (compliance / conflict / micro states excluded) β 108 countries (patient pool β₯ 1 million) β 72 countries (OOP β₯ $40 and no foreign-exchange controls) β 57 countries (< 5 competitors) β Top 25 ranked by a five-dimension weighted score (disease burden 25% + competitive whitespace 20% + reimbursement access 25% + registration speed 20% + affordability 10%).
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